Verified Model Accuracy

We record and settle every model prediction against official match results. No deleted picks, no retroactive edits.

Total Settled

484

Correct Outcomes

211

Prediction Accuracy

43.6%

Accuracy measures how often the selected outcome matched the settled result. It does not represent guaranteed betting returns.

Last 30 Days

Rolling recent accuracy, updated as fixtures settle.

43.8%

46/105 correct

Market Performance Breakdown

1x249% (48/98)

over_under_2_552% (51/98)

btts50% (48/96)

correct_score8.3% (8/96)

handicap58.3% (56/96)

Hypothetical Performance

ROI unavailable because historical publication odds were not recorded. We only calculate ROI using odds captured before kickoff for a specific prediction — never today's odds applied retroactively.

Model Version Performance

poisson-dixon-coles v0.1.043.6% (211/484)

MarketDate Range

Past Matches vs Our Predictions

Showing 1–25 of 484

Real Madrid vs Villarreal

handicap · Picked home · Actual push

Missed

Real Madrid vs Villarreal

correct_score · Picked 3-1 · Actual 1-0

Missed

Real Madrid vs Villarreal

btts · Picked yes · Actual no

Missed

Real Madrid vs Villarreal

over_under_2_5 · Picked over · Actual under

Missed

Real Madrid vs Villarreal

1x2 · Picked home · Actual home

Correct

Napoli vs Frosinone

handicap · Picked away · Actual home

Missed

Napoli vs Frosinone

correct_score · Picked 0-1 · Actual 3-0

Missed

Napoli vs Frosinone

btts · Picked no · Actual no

Correct

Napoli vs Frosinone

over_under_2_5 · Picked under · Actual over

Missed

Napoli vs Frosinone

1x2 · Picked away · Actual home

Missed